Myanmar March Monthly Risk Report

According to Hanwei International security public opinion monitoring, a total of 252 representative security incidents of various types were recorded across Myanmar in March, an increase of 123 compared with February. These incidents caused 340 deaths and 221 injuries. By category, security events were dominated by armed conflicts and bomb attacks, mainly concentrated in Sagaing Region and Shan State.

In March 2026, politically, the military government completed a nominal transition to a "civilian government" through carefully orchestrated elections, a move widely questioned by domestic resistance forces and the international community. Economically and livelihood-wise, the fuel crisis triggered by global geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, ongoing armed confrontations, and incomplete post-earthquake reconstruction have intertwined, plunging Myanmar’s people into multiple hardships.

Political Leadership Election Progress

On March 16, the First Session of the Third Pyithu Hluttaw (House of Representatives) convened for the first time since the military takeover. Khin Yi, Chairman of the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), was elected as the new Speaker of the Pyithu Hluttaw. Myanmar’s parliament held its first plenary meeting in more than five years, consolidating the military’s continued firm grip on state power. Published photos showed around one quarter of attending legislators in military uniform, as one quarter of parliamentary seats are government-appointed.

On March 18, at the first session of the Third Amyotha Hluttaw (Senate) held in Nay Pyi Taw, Aung Lin Dwe, former Secretary of the State Administration Council, was elected as the new Speaker of the Amyotha Hluttaw.

On March 20, the Third Union Parliament together with multiple regional and state parliaments held their inaugural regular sessions, marking a key milestone in the political leadership transition. The Union Parliament released the election schedule for the President and Vice Presidents, while parliamentary speaker elections were successfully concluded in Yangon, Mandalay and Ayeyarwady Regions.

U Aung Lin Dwe, Speaker of the Union Parliament, announced that the presidential and vice presidential election would be held on March 30, entering the final countdown for national leadership reshuffle. Nominees for Vice President proposed by various groups were submitted to the Parliament Speaker for formal election procedures.

On March 31, elected civilian parliamentary groups and military-appointed delegations of the Pyithu Hluttaw and Amyotha Hluttaw respectively elected Min Aung Hlaing, Nan Ni Ni Aye and Nyo Saw as Vice Presidents.

International Exchanges and Cooperation

The celebration month marking the 10th anniversary of Lancang-Mekong Cooperation (LMC) was launched in Nay Pyi Taw on March 5. Attendees included Than Swe, Member of Myanmar’s National Security and Peace Commission and Minister of Foreign Affairs, other Myanmar government officials, Ma Jia, Chinese Ambassador to Myanmar, as well as diplomatic envoys and representatives from multiple countries. Than Swe stated that under the guidance of leaders from the six LMC countries, fruitful achievements have been made across all fields, making LMC one of the most successful Mekong regional mechanisms. He expressed sincere gratitude for China’s support and looked forward to greater accomplishments in future cooperation. Ambassador Ma Jia noted that over the past decade, the six Lancang-Mekong countries have steadily advanced the building of a community with a shared future, contributing greatly to regional development and common prosperity.

On March 11, Sun Weidong, Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, met with Zaw Win Myint, newly appointed Myanmar Ambassador to China. Sun Weidong welcomed Zaw Win Myint to assume his new post in China, stating that China and Myanmar are close neighbors, good friends, reliable partners and kindred spirits sharing weal and woe. Guided by the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, bilateral friendly relations continue to deepen. China supports Myanmar in safeguarding national sovereignty, independence and unity, pursuing a development path suited to its national conditions and endorsed by its people, and advancing post-earthquake reconstruction and stable development.

On the evening of March 27, Myanmar’s 81st Armed Forces Day military parade was held at the parade ground in Nay Pyi Taw. Formations and military equipment assembled in order at the Thida Parade Ground before marching in formation for the ceremony.

Fuel Shortage and Central Bank Forex Injection

Escalating conflicts in the Middle East drove international crude oil prices above USD 100 per barrel in March 2026, with Brent crude hitting a peak of USD 119, triggering severe fuel shortages in Myanmar. A prolonged Middle East conflict may push energy prices higher for an extended period, driving up production costs and potentially spilling over into core inflation (inflation excluding volatile energy and food prices). Myanmar’s Central Bank continued injecting foreign currencies including US dollars and Thai baht into the market to stabilize the Myanmar kyat.

On March 13, the handover ceremony of the China-Myanmar Friendship Market was held in Sagaing Region. Ambassador Ma Jia, U Mya Kyaw, Chief Minister of Sagaing Region, Liu Ming, President of the Myanmar-China Chamber of Commerce, together with over 150 local officials and residents attended the event. Ambassador Ma Jia remarked that the market serves as a small yet high-quality livelihood project supporting Sagaing’s post-earthquake reconstruction, expecting sustainable operation to benefit local people long-term. The Chinese Embassy and Chinese enterprises in Myanmar will continue promoting more livelihood projects in the country.

On March 16, Myanmar Investment Commission (MIC) held its third meeting of 2026, approving 35 new investment projects in one batch, with a total investment of 41 million US dollars and 1.95 trillion Myanmar kyat, expected to create 5,064 direct local jobs. It represents one of the largest concentrated investment approvals this year, sending a clear signal of stabilizing employment via investment and boosting economic recovery through industrial development.

To support increased fuel imports, Myanmar’s Central Bank sold 45 million US dollars to fuel importers via designated banks on March 23 to meet market demand. In addition, the Central Bank planned to sell 50 million Thai baht to importers through the FX Trading Platform according to market needs.

On March 25, authorities encouraged citizens to reduce vehicle usage and celebrate the Water Festival with pedestrian-style celebrations along city moats. Water Festival events will be held in townships including Aungmyethazan, Mahaaungmye, Kyaukse, Meiktila and Amarapura in Mandalay Region. Solar and electric water pumps will replace fuel-powered equipment to supply festival water along moat areas. Traffic restrictions will be imposed with vehicle bans on 26th Street and 66th Street.

Severe Livelihood Insecurity

On March 7, residents in Taunggyi, southern Shan State rushed to stockpile daily necessities amid fears of food and medicine shortages, driving up commodity prices sharply.

On March 11, refugee camps in Chin State and Sagaing Region faced critical medicine shortages, with unmet medical demands particularly for pregnant women and gynecological patients.

On March 14, the Ta Law Ta Poe Refugee Camp in Myawaddy, Kayin State was struck by a military drone attack, trapping over 5,000 refugees with restricted mobility.

On March 26, a UN report ranked Myanmar as the world’s fifth most food-insecure country, with 12.4 million people facing severe food shortages.

On March 29, the World Food Programme was forced to cut aid due to funding depletion, leaving approximately one million refugees in Myanmar receiving their final batch of food assistance.

Military Town Seizures and Widespread Armed Clashes

On March 5, the military launched an assault on Nyaunglaybin Township in Bago Region, killing at least 29 civilians and detaining around 300 residents temporarily.

On March 12, the military retook control of Taungdwingyi Township in Mandalay Region after more than 85 armed engagements. The same day, resistance forces launched 18 rocket attacks on Ketumadi Air Base in Bago Region, targeting fuel depots and drone warehouses.

On March 14, clashes broke out between the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) in Kutkai Township, northern Shan State.

On March 17, military forces shelled civilian areas from a weapons factory in Aunglan Township, Magway Region, triggering fires and mass displacement.

On March 23, a military supply convoy en route to Natyaekan Base in Magway Region was ambushed by the Arakan Army (AA), causing at least 20 military casualties and the seizure of supplies.

On March 26, the military launched intensive airstrikes targeting the Myawaddy trade corridor near the Myanmar-Thailand border in Kayin State and areas in Tanintharyi Region.

Intense fighting persists in northern Shan State (especially Lashio), Kayin State along the Myanmar-Thailand border (Myawaddy area), as well as parts of Sagaing, Magway and Bago Regions in central and western Myanmar.

Hanwei International Recommendations: Personnel in high-risk areas are advised to evacuate immediately or return to China as soon as possible. All Chinese citizens residing in Myanmar are strongly recommended to register personal information with the Chinese Embassy and Consulates. Do not trust false high-salary recruitment information, stay highly vigilant against online gambling and telecom fraud; avoid illegal employment under tourist or visiting visas, and guard against cross-border marriage scams.