Analysis of Nigeria’s Social Security Situation – March 2026

Researcher No. 007

Based on monitoring reports from Hanwei International’s West Africa security officers and comprehensive media coverage, a total of 90 security incidents were recorded across Nigeria in March 2026. These incidents resulted in the deaths of 230 civilians and 73 military and police personnel, with at least 506 people abducted. Major incident types included armed attacks and kidnappings, military clearance operations, and public safety accidents.

Compared with the previous month, the number of security incidents rose by 24 cases, kidnappings increased by 405 persons, while the death toll decreased by 303 persons. Analysis shows Nigeria’s security situation deteriorated further in March, marked by a sharp rise in security incidents and mass abductions. Large-scale armed raids and kidnappings remained rampant in Borno State in the northeast, as well as Plateau State and Benue State in the central region, causing heavy casualties.

On March 6, gunmen abducted more than 300 people, including women and children, in Ngoshe Town, Borno State. Nigerian President Tinubu ordered the military to launch an emergency rescue operation to contain the crisis. In March, the northeast, central, and mid-west regions of Nigeria were rated Extremely High Risk, while other areas were classified as Medium to High Risk.

I. Comprehensive Analysis of Security Incidents

Of the 90 security incidents in March:

40 armed attacks (44%)
22 armed kidnappings (24%)
3 ethnic conflicts (3.3%)
6 public safety incidents (6.6%)
12 military clearance operations (13%)
6 demonstrations and protests (6.6%)

All incidents combined caused 562 fatalities and at least 506 abductions. The death toll included 230 civilians, 73 military and police officers, and 257 killed terrorists. The overall security situation presents the following characteristics:

(1) Extremely High Security Risks in Northeast, Central and North-Central Regions

Security incidents were mainly concentrated in Borno State (Northeast), Benue State and Plateau State (Central), Kaduna State, Katsina State and Zamfara State (North-Central). Niger State (North-Central) and Kwara State (Central) were also high-risk areas.

Borno State (Highest Risk): 13 security incidents, up 9 month-on-month; 46 dead and 301 abducted.
Katsina & Zamfara States: Each recorded 7 incidents, an increase of 3 and 5 respectively month-on-month, causing a total of 75 deaths and 20 abductions.

Armed bandits in Zamfara State imposed illegal “protection fees” on local residents, triggering public panic. Bandits demanded 30 million Naira from residents of Bilbis Town and planted Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) on surrounding roads to block food supply and population movement. Security forces have since reinforced local deployments to guard against surprise militant attacks.

Plateau State in central Nigeria remained volatile, with 6 incidents (down 3 from last month) causing 64 casualties, drawing widespread concern. On March 29, the Plateau State government imposed a 48-hour curfew in northern Jos, a hotspot for armed raids, from 00:00 March 29 to April 1, 2026. The state government condemned brutal and indiscriminate attacks on innocent civilians and pledged to strengthen public safety protection.

Hanwei International’s West Africa security office issued two security alerts in March:

March 11: Terrorist groups planned attacks and kidnappings targeting foreign nationals around Kainji Lake in northwest Nigeria. Chinese citizens in the area were advised to strengthen precautions for personal and property safety.
March 14: Terrorist groups plotted to abduct Chinese nationals in Kebbi State, targeting Shanga, Ngaski, Sakaba and Bagudo. Chinese-funded enterprises and personnel were urged to tighten self-protection measures.

Separately, the U.S. Embassy in Nigeria issued a security warning on March 10, alerting that U.S. facilities and affiliated schools, especially those in Abuja’s Federal Capital Territory, faced potential terrorist threats. U.S. citizens in Nigeria were advised to raise safety awareness and take preventive measures.

Figure 1: Distribution of Security Incidents in March

Chart 1: Security Incident Statistics by Major Region – March

(2) Persistently Frequent Armed Attacks and Kidnappings

A total of 62 armed attacks and kidnapping cases occurred in March, leaving 268 dead and 506 abducted. Compared with last month, incidents rose by 15 cases, fatalities fell by 228, and abductions surged by 405.

A notable feature was that military bases became prime targets. There were 19 armed assaults on military bases and checkpoints, killing 73 military and police personnel — far exceeding the 21 deaths recorded last month.

March 1: Multiple forward operational bases in Borno State came under coordinated attack by Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), killing 15 soldiers including one officer and wounding many others. Militants used PKT heavy machine guns, RPG rocket launchers, and explosive-laden armed drones for multi-directional suppression and aerial strikes. One recovered drone was confirmed modified as an explosive delivery platform.
March 5: Gunmen raided a border checkpoint in Bagudu Local Government Area, Kebbi State, killing 2 police officers.
March 5–6: Four military bases in Borno State were simultaneously attacked by ISWAP militants, leaving over 40 soldiers dead, multiple tanks and military vehicles burned, and large quantities of ammunition looted. After the attack, Lieutenant General Waidi Shaibu, Chief of Army Staff, rushed to Maiduguri, capital of Borno State, to oversee emergency response.
March 25: Security forces on duty in Kebbi State were ambushed, killing 13 people including 11 soldiers, 1 policeman and 1 civilian, injuring multiple troops and burning several vehicles.

Kidnappings remained dominated by village raids targeting civilians. Among 22 kidnapping cases: 15 targeted village residents, 3 targeted officials, and 1 each targeted miners, medical staff and research institution employees.

March 6: Over 300 people abducted in Ngoshe Town, Borno State.
March 9: Armed bandits disguised as women raided a village in Sokoto State, killing 1 and abducting 5.
March 14: 5 foreign miners abducted at a gold mine in Alafa Village, Maru Local Government Area, Zamfara State.
March 18: 5 staff abducted in an attack on the Cocoa Research Institute in Oyo State.
March 22: 8 people abducted in an armed raid on a church in Kwara State.
March 28: 6 medical workers abducted in an attack on a medical centre in Okekebu, Akure City, Ondo State.

Frequent militant attacks pushed Nigeria’s Global Terrorism Index (GTI) from 6th to 4th worldwide. The latest GTI report shows terrorist incidents in Nigeria rose from 120 in 2024 to 171 in 2025 (up 43%), with fatalities rising 46% to 750, hitting the highest level since 2020.

Terrorist attacks are mainly perpetrated by Boko Haram and ISWAP, accounting for 80% of all incidents. 67% of attacks occurred in Borno State and north-central states, responsible for 72% of total terrorism-related deaths.

(3) U.S. Deploys Drones in Nigeria

Following the deployment of around 200 U.S. military personnel to Nigeria in mid-February, the U.S. stationed several MQ-9 Reaper drones at an airbase in Bauchi State, northeast Nigeria, on March 24. The U.S. stated the drones will mainly conduct intelligence collection, surveillance and training support, with no immediate combat missions.

The deployment marks the transition of U.S. counter-terrorism support to Nigeria from planning to formal operation. Nigeria’s Defence Headquarters confirmed a new U.S.–Nigeria intelligence cooperation framework has been established, featuring institutionalized collaboration on intelligence links, target detection and battlefield information sharing.

Media analysis suggests that after losing Air Base 201 in Agadez, Niger, the U.S. is using Bauchi in Nigeria as a new regional pivot to resume persistent surveillance over West Africa and the eastern Sahel, making Nigeria a new anchor for U.S. military presence in the region.

(4) Major Casualties from Public Safety Incidents

Six major public safety incidents occurred in March, killing 27 people, down 75 from the previous month, mainly involving traffic accidents and fires.

March 14: A passenger bus collided head-on with a heavy trailer in Kogi State, leaving 6 dead and 9 injured; speeding was confirmed as the preliminary cause.

The Lassa fever epidemic continued spreading across Nigeria. As of March 28, the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) reported 776 new suspected cases across 82 local government areas in 21 states, with a cumulative 3,222 suspected cases, 582 confirmed cases and 146 deaths. The Case Fatality Rate (CFR) stood at 25.1%, higher than 18.7% in the same period of 2025.

Affected states include Ondo, Edo, Taraba, Bauchi, Plateau and Benue. Benue State recorded 400 suspected cases, 55 confirmed and 14 deaths; Taraba 40 deaths, Ondo 30, Bauchi 25. The National Association of Resident Doctors confirmed at least 25 members infected and 1 death, while the Nigerian Medical Association reported 37 medical workers infected and 3 deaths.

(5) Intensified Military Counter-Terrorism Operations

Nigerian military and police intensified crackdowns on terrorists in March, focusing on the northeast, central and north-central regions. A total of 257 terrorists were killed and 25 hostages rescued.

March 3: Multiple precision airstrikes by the Nigerian Air Force’s Operation Hardin Kai killed 50 militants in Guozha Local Government Area, Borno State.
March 13: Troops repelled a coordinated ISWAP attack in Yobe State, killing around 20 gunmen.
March 19: A new round of clearance operations in Plateau State arrested 53 suspects linked to crimes and extremist groups.
March 23: Troops of Theatre Command 2’s Operation Vansan Yamma intensified raids on criminal and militant hideouts in Sokoto, Zamfara and Kebbi States, killing at least 6 bandits and seizing weapons and communication equipment.

State governments also strengthened crackdowns on illegal mining:

March 7: Cross River State announced a full ban on illegal mining and 24-hour patrols to curb security and environmental risks.
March 28: Edo State police arrested 58 suspects at an illegal gold mining site.

Chart 2: Classification Comparison of March Security Incidents

Chart 3: Statistical Breakdown of Fatalities by Category – March

Chart 4: Comparison of Major Security Incidents – March vs February

II. Risk Early Warning & Prevention Recommendations

Chart 5: Short-Term Social Security Risk Warning for Nigeria

Note: Internal security risk assessment by Hanwei International

Given Nigeria’s complex social environment and high-risk security rating, the following preventive measures are recommended:

Full-time security escort for all travel. Police deployment is limited in remote rural areas, road infrastructure is poor, and security forces often respond slowly to violent crimes and unrest. Chinese-funded enterprises shall keep updated on local security intelligence, conduct targeted risk assessment for destinations, and arrange armed security escorts for all trips.
Heighten safety awareness during Easter. Easter is a major Christian festival in Nigeria. The federal government declared April 3 (Good Friday) and April 6 (Easter Monday) public holidays, with large-scale church gatherings, prayers and vigils expected. Amid ongoing armed attacks and kidnappings, Chinese enterprises and citizens in Nigeria are advised to reduce non-essential outings, upgrade security protocols, and safeguard personal and property safety. Nigeria’s Defence Headquarters has ordered nationwide military units to raise alert levels ahead of Easter and reinforced security deployments across the country to prevent festival-related security threats.
Effective risk avoidance. Most attacks are concentrated in the northeast and north-central regions, particularly Maiduguri (central Borno), highways connecting major towns, border areas with Niger, and Zamfara State. Kaduna and Abuja have seen a recent surge in security incidents. In the event of a terrorist attack, follow official instructions and contact designated security service providers for timely assistance. Install CCTV at compounds, shops, warehouses and residences; equip camps with trenches, high walls, barbed wire, anti-collision barriers, buffer zones and alarm systems, and reinforce military and police guard deployments. Avoid lingering near potential militant targets including government and military facilities, landmark buildings and religious sites. Minimize stays in crowded public venues across northeast Nigeria, religious festival venues, multi-ethnic residential areas, high crime zones (especially highways and pirate-prone Gulf of Guinea waters), oil and gas installations, government compounds, military barracks, diplomatic missions, worship sites, schools, markets, refugee camps and transport hubs.

Nigeria Security Situation Review –March 2026 (Total Issue No. 294)