South Africa Security Situation Overview（ December）

Researcher No. 006

Based on the monitoring reports from Hanwei International's security officers stationed in South Africa and relevant media coverage, Hanwei International's analysis concludes that South Africa's social security situation remained grim in December, with security governance becoming increasingly complex. On the political and economic front, fierce competition for the presidential succession within the ruling African National Congress (ANC) has led to severe factional divisions. The ongoing water supply crisis and water pollution have continued to threaten the basic living safety of the public, further exacerbating social anxiety. Frequent corruption cases involving people's livelihood infrastructure at the grassroots level have eroded the government's credibility. In terms of social security, indiscriminate shooting incidents have occurred frequently in Gauteng, Western Cape and other provinces; robbery crimes have permeated all scenarios; and kidnapping crimes have targeted specific groups, pushing the security line to the brink of collapse. In other aspects, the rainy season and festive season have led to a spate of serious traffic accidents, resulting in tragedies with multiple fatalities.

I. Political and Economic Aspects

(1) ANC Faces "External Stability and Internal Troubles", Leading to a "Vacuum Period" in Security Governance

Currently, the ruling African National Congress (ANC) in South Africa is in an overall political pattern of "external stability and internal troubles". On one hand, rumors of an internal "coup attempt" have been rife. On December 2, 2025, the ANC announced that it would formally investigate the rumors of plotting to oust President Cyril Ramaphosa within the party. Among them, ANC member Mondli Gungubele and Health Minister Joe Phaahla were suspected of being involved in the "coup plot". Earlier, although President Ramaphosa temporarily stabilized the divisive situation with the support of senior officials and his outstanding diplomatic performance during the G20 Summit, the continuous ferment of the "coup attempt" rumors has also reflected the loosening of the ANC's core ruling foundation, with persistent doubts within the party about Ramaphosa's policy orientation. On the other hand, the early warm-up for the presidential election has further reflected the party's doubts about his governing ability. On December 12, the ANC held its National General Council (NGC) meeting. It is widely believed that President Ramaphosa's term is drawing to a close, and the competition for the ANC's presidential candidate in the 2027 election has gradually heated up. The core contenders include Vice President Paul Mashatile, ANC Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula, and the "dark horse" candidate—South African billionaire and President of the Confederation of African Football (CAF) Patrice Motsepe. Various factions within the ANC have begun to lay out the power transition for 2027, further intensifying internal factional divisions.

Amid the fierce rivalry among multiple factions within the ANC, the central and local governments have struggled to fully promote security governance. The police and security departments have also been deeply affected by political games in policy implementation, resulting in insufficient efforts to crack down on various crimes caused by the proliferation of illegal firearms and a serious lack of security guarantees in the field of people's livelihood. This situation is very likely to lead to a "vacuum period" in security prevention and control.

(2) Water Supply Crisis and Water Pollution "Intertwine", Endangering the Basic Living Safety of the Public

On December 13, the City of Johannesburg in Gauteng Province, South Africa, issued a phased water cutoff notice from mid-December 2025 to January 2026, aiming to carry out planned maintenance on the two core water supply systems of Zuikerbosch and Eikenhof. The maintenance project was carried out in three phases: the Zuikerbosch system was shut down first from December 13 to 15; the Eikenhof system entered the maintenance period from December 19 to 21; and the Eikenhof system was shut down again for overhaul from January 6 to 8, 2026. On December 16, to prevent the risk of water shortage caused by high temperatures and little rainfall in summer, the Western Cape Provincial Government launched differentiated water restriction measures, planning to list 8 towns including Van Wyksdorp, Calitzdorp and Knysna as high-risk water supply areas. On December 18, the Water Community Action Network (WaterCan) released a national water quality test report, covering multiple scenarios such as dams, rivers, tap water and household water storage facilities. The report showed that E. coli was detected in two-thirds of the water samples nationwide, with particularly prominent pollution problems in Gauteng, Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal provinces.

The continuous deterioration of the water supply crisis and water quality problems nationwide are likely to trigger public dissatisfaction. If water restriction measures are intensified, water cutoff time is prolonged and water quality problems are not effectively resolved, large-scale public protests may be triggered.

(3) Municipal Corruption in South Africa Focuses on People's Livelihood, Continuously Undermining the Security Bottom Line

On December 4, Eugene Modise, Deputy Mayor of Pretoria and Member of the Finance Committee, was exposed on suspicion of fraud and corruption. The Democratic Alliance (DA) accused him of profiting from a municipal security contract worth 300 million rand, namely receiving rental income and failing to declare his property portfolio worth tens of millions of rand in accordance with regulations. On December 9, 16 education officials in KwaZulu-Natal Province were under disciplinary investigation on suspicion of illegally awarding a 2.5 million rand school mobile toilet rental contract, and may face dismissal.

The above two municipal corruption cases both focus on people's livelihood infrastructure, further exposing the key areas of grassroots corruption in South Africa. These cases are closely related to basic fields such as public services and people's basic lives, which are prone to trigger mass protest conflicts and thus undermine social stability.

II. Social Security Risks

(1) Shooting Incidents

The number of shooting violence incidents in South Africa showed a sharp increase this month. Among them, 4 vicious shooting cases in Western Cape and Gauteng provinces caused at least 32 deaths and more than 20 injuries. The violent crimes have evolved from covert nighttime operations to direct shootings in public places, with the degree of maliciousness escalating continuously.

Western Cape Province: On December 2, 4 gunmen opened fire outside a residence on Viscount Street in Cape Town, forced their way into the house and sprayed bullets continuously, resulting in 3 deaths and 2 serious injuries, including a 9-year-old boy who was unfortunately killed.Gauteng Province: On December 6, a large-scale shooting occurred in a labor accommodation community in western Pretoria, causing 10 deaths and more than 10 injuries. Wedela Technical High School in Carletonville has been paralyzed by repeated theft and sabotage by armed illegal miners. After the police rushed to the scene, a fierce shootout broke out with the illegal miners, who fled under the cover of night. In the early morning of December 21, multiple unidentified gunmen launched an indiscriminate attack on customers in a tavern and crowds on the street in Tambo District, Bekkersdal Town, causing at least 9 deaths and multiple injuries.

(2) Robbery

Robbery crimes in South Africa have shown the characteristics of "multi-scenario and lethal", covering all scenarios such as cities, rural areas, highways and shopping malls, evolving from simple robbery to vicious violent crimes involving injury and murder.

On November 29, a vicious robbery and attack occurred on a farm in the Baltimore area of Limpopo Province, resulting in the death of a 77-year-old farmer and his wife narrowly escaping. On December 5, 64-year-old Karin van Aardt and her husband were attacked by a man who smashed the car window and robbed them with a knife while driving from the airport to their granddaughter's birthday party in the Bonteheuwel neighborhood on the N7 highway in Cape Town. Karin was stabbed and unfortunately died of excessive blood loss. On December 17, the Gauteng Provincial Police exchanged fire with a group of courier robbers on the R25 highway, resulting in 2 suspects being shot dead and 1 injured and arrested. On December 18, multiple security agencies issued a warning, reminding the public to be highly vigilant against robbery, theft and other crimes in shopping malls and their surrounding areas during the festive season. Recent data shows that shoplifting cases in South Africa have occurred frequently in the past two years, with the number of such cases rising particularly rapidly in Western Cape and Gauteng provinces.

(3) Kidnapping

The two key tracked kidnapping incidents this month showed the characteristics of target locking and scenario adaptation, both occurring in Cape Town. Combined with the above-mentioned large-scale shooting cases in Cape Town, this further highlights that the region has become a core high-incidence area of violent crimes in South Africa. With the concentration of people flow and capital flow during the festive season, the crime risk has been further pushed up.

On December 9, news broke that Lan Zhanfei, a Chinese internet celebrity travel blogger, was kidnapped in a hotel in Cape Town, South Africa. The criminal gang obtained his travel information and allegedly bribed internal staff of the hotel and airline to sneak into the room and carry out the hijacking. At present, the victim has safely escaped with the assistance of the Consulate General of China in Cape Town, and the local police have set up a special task force to investigate the case. On December 16, an attempted child abduction occurred at the Vangate Shopping Mall in the Athlone area of Cape Town. A 5-year-old girl was not taken away by the suspect due to the timely intervention of her parents. The police subsequently detained a 30-year-old suspect involved in the case and filed an investigation on the charge of "attempted kidnapping". At present, the suspect has been formally detained, and the victim's family has received psychological assistance.

III. Other Aspects

(1) Frequent Traffic Accidents in South Africa, Surging Travel Pressure on the Public

This month, road traffic accidents occurred frequently in South Africa, causing at least 21 deaths in just 20 days. Meanwhile, the rainy season and festive season have further increased the risk level.Eastern Cape Province: A multi-vehicle collision occurred on the N10 highway, resulting in 5 deaths.Mpumalanga Province: On the R33 highway section, a bus traveling to Johannesburg lost control and overturned due to slippery road conditions in the rainy season, killing 5 passengers on the spot and injuring 6 others seriously and 20 slightly. On the R38 highway, a minibus taxi collided with a truck, killing the taxi driver and 2 passengers, while the truck driver was unharmed.Western Cape Province: A total of 14 pedestrians were killed in traffic accidents between December 8 and 14. On December 16, a 20-year-old law enforcement officer unfortunately died while rescuing victims of a traffic accident.

Recommendations from Hanwei International for Chinese-funded Enterprises and Individuals in South Africa

Enterprise Level

Legitimate and Compliant Operation and Risk ControlIt is recommended to fully comply with local laws and regulations in South Africa, especially in key links such as municipal project cooperation and engineering development, to eliminate any non-compliant behaviors and prevent involvement in corruption cases. All agreements with local partners and government agencies should be signed in a standardized manner, clearly defining the rights and responsibilities of all parties, and transaction records should be properly preserved to guard against contract disputes and fraud risks.
Production Safety Assurance and Emergency ManagementIn response to possible phased unstable water supply, it is necessary to formulate water reserve plans in advance and configure emergency water supply equipment to ensure production continuity. Regularly inspect and maintain the water supply and drainage systems in the factory area to prevent potential production safety hazards caused by water quality problems. At the same time, improve the factory security protection system, employ trained security teams, deploy video surveillance and alarm devices, and establish regular communication and cooperation mechanisms with local security service providers and law enforcement departments to effectively prevent public security incidents such as theft and robbery.

Individual Level

Daily Water Use and Residential SafetyPay close attention to water cutoff or water restriction announcements issued by local water supply departments in a timely manner, prepare sufficient drinking water and domestic water in advance, and it is recommended to prioritize reliable water sources such as bottled water that meets safe production standards, and try to avoid directly drinking unboiled tap water to reduce health risks.
Daily Travel and Home Security PreventionMinimize nighttime travel and avoid high-risk areas such as regions with frequent ANC political rallies and slum settlements. When going out, it is advisable to travel in groups and not carry large amounts of cash or valuables. Meanwhile, pay attention to driving safety during festivals and rainy weather. Install security facilities such as monitoring equipment and anti-theft door locks in residences to prevent violent crimes that may occur due to community security loopholes.

South Africa Security Situation Overview for December 2025(Issue No. 281 in Total)