Based on monitoring reports from Hanwei International's security officers stationed in Iraq and relevant media coverage, Hanwei International's analysis indicates that Iraq’s overall security situation remains complex, with the focus centered on parliamentary elections and the prime ministerial race. At the political and economic level, the competition for the prime ministerial post within the Coordination Framework (CF) is fierce, and Mohammed Shia al-Sudani still needs to coordinate with various parties to seek re-election; is the signing of the Iraq-Turkey infrastructure cooperation agreement merely a drop in the bucket? Protests broke out frequently during the election period, with people from all walks of life voicing their livelihood demands loudly. In terms of social security, election-related violent conflicts, irregularities, explosions, tribal clashes and other incidents occurred frequently, causing heavy casualties and leading to the arrest of many people. In other developments, the Iraqi armed forces have acquired the capability to independently conduct precision air strikes, successfully eliminating multiple ISIS militants and destroying key strongholds, which has greatly compressed the terrorist group’s operational space.
I. Political and Economic Dimensions (1) Tight Race for Iraqi Prime Minister: Who Will Win the "Three-way Balance of Power"?Iraq’s parliamentary election officially concluded on November 11, 2025. The Shia camp secured approximately 187 out of the 329 seats in the parliament, maintaining its dominant position. Within the Coordination Framework (CF), the core force of the Shia camp, the race for the prime ministerial candidacy has narrowed down to three individuals:
1. Mohammed Shia al-Sudani: The "State of Law Coalition" led by him won 45 seats, emerging as the largest faction within the CF. During his tenure, he stabilized the budget through the "Three-Year Fiscal Bill", advanced the implementation of major projects, and balanced relations between the United States and Iraq, thus gaining support from the public and multiple political parties.
2. Nouri al-Maliki: Leader of the "State of Law Coalition". His faction has publicly opposed al-Sudani’s re-election bid, insisting that CF decisions should be based on "political influence and consensus" rather than the specific number of seats won.
3. Hamid al-Shammari: Director of the National Intelligence Service. With his intelligence and security background and non-partisan status, he is regarded as a potential compromise candidate to balance al-Sudani and al-Maliki. This month, the CF is holding closed-door negotiations and setting up expert committees to advance the cabinet formation process. The final outcome of the prime ministerial race hinges on the internal consensus of the CF. As the second-largest oil producer in OPEC, if Iraq’s election triggers a cabinet formation deadlock, it may lead to political unrest, which in turn could drive up global oil prices. Rising oil prices will directly push up inflation rates and exacerbate the pressure on basic livelihoods.
(2) Effect of Iraq-Turkey "Oil-for-Water" Deal in Doubt; Iraqi Livelihoods Under Severe Strain
On November 2, Iraq and Turkey signed an infrastructure cooperation agreement, under which proceeds from Iraqi oil exports to Turkey will be deposited into a dedicated account to fund water conservancy projects carried out by Turkish enterprises in Iraq. The first phase of the project includes the construction of three dams and three land reclamation projects. However, the agreement does not specify water allocation quotas, specific implementation measures or a clear timetable. The fact that the temporary release of 1 billion cubic meters of water by Turkey in the middle of this year did not form a long-term mechanism further highlights the fragility of this memorandum-like agreement. At the same time, people’s livelihoods in Iraq have been severely impacted:
- Kirkuk Province: A large-scale reduction in wheat cultivation area has been implemented, with some farmland even excluded from planting plans, leaving only areas equipped with modern irrigation systems.
- Dhi Qar Province: More than 100,000 residents faced a five-day water outage. In Al-Islah and Sayyid Dakhil, water sources became salinized and undrinkable, and the local buffalo population plummeted by half within two years. Relevant UN data shows that 90% of Iraq’s surface water is heavily polluted, approximately 37,000 people have been displaced due to water shortages, and salinization and pollution issues are extremely severe in southern regions such as Basra and Maysan.
(3) Multi-sectoral Protests Erupt, Focusing on Rights Protection and Policy Dilemmas
1. Public Servants: In front of the Federal Service Commission in downtown Baghdad, dozens of prospective Ministry of Defense employees on the "List 399" staged another rally to protest the prolonged delay in their employment process. These individuals have completed all entry audits and obtained approval signed by the prime minister in accordance with the *Budget Law*, but the commission has shelved the procedures on the grounds that "they will be processed after the election". As a result, they have not received formal appointments for three years and have to continue to express their demands through demonstrations.
2. Educators: The national teaching community is planning a large-scale demonstration, demanding the disbursement of a special subsidy of 150,000 dinars (approximately 103 US dollars) per person, which was previously approved by the parliament. The Ministry of Finance has refused to allocate funds citing "liquidity constraints caused by oil price fluctuations", affecting over one million educators. The minimum monthly salary for newly appointed teachers is only about 300,000 dinars (206 US dollars), and the industry has long been plagued by salary freezes and promotion stagnation. Thousands of teachers in Babylon Province have taken the lead in holding rallies, demanding the enforcement of the *Teacher Protection Law*, and have warned that if their demands are not met, they will launch a nationwide strike and indefinite sit-in.
3. Farmers: Affected by persistent drought, water storage in Iraq’s reservoirs has hit a record low. Farmers in multiple southern provinces such as Dhi Qar and Maysan plan to hold large-scale protests against the government’s planting ban and new irrigation regulations. The policy requires farmers to adopt water-saving sprinkler irrigation systems, but most farmers cannot afford the equipment costs. The arable land area in Dhi Qar Province has plummeted from 400,000 dunums to 120,000 dunums, and the stock of buffalo and fish has been halved. In Maysan Province, 13 people have been killed in conflicts over water resources, and the agricultural system is on the verge of collapse.
4. Business Community: Oilfield service companies and contractors in Basra Province held a rally outside a branch of the Central Bank, opposing the sudden revocation of their US dollar payment authorization. Previously, these enterprises were allowed to withdraw 140 million US dollars per month for operational funds, but this permission was recently revoked without reason, plunging the industry into financial distress and threatening the livelihoods of over 20,000 employees. The demonstrators demanded the restoration of the US dollar payment mechanism and compensation for existing losses. All the above-mentioned protests are related to issues such as Iraq’s over-reliance on oil and the worsening water crisis, and most of them occurred during the policy adjustment period in the later stage of the election, which profoundly reflects the public’s dissatisfaction with the "political cycle ignoring livelihood needs".
II. Social Security Risks (1) Election-related Conflicts
During and after the 2025 Iraqi parliamentary election, violent conflicts and irregularities broke out in multiple provinces including Nineveh, Kirkuk and Basra, resulting in at least 4 deaths, 8 injuries and nearly 30 arrests.
- Nineveh Province: Shootings involving light and medium weapons during the election in the Ba'aj area led to the arrest of 7 people, and related video footage triggered strong public reactions. In the Rabia area of the same province, a controversy emerged where relatives of a Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) commander were suspected of driving away election monitors and coercing staff to support specific candidates, and relevant legal investigation procedures have been launched.
- Basra Province: Vote-buying, illegal propaganda and other irregularities occurred during the special voting phase in Basra. A shootout broke out in the Samawah area, resulting in 2 deaths and 2 injuries. In addition, a police officer was arrested on suspicion of buying voter registration cards for 1.2 million dinars.
- Kirkuk Province: Security personnel of a parliamentary candidate clashed with others, which escalated into a shooting incident, causing the death of two police officers and injuries to two civilians. At present, 14 involved individuals have been transferred to judicial authorities for handling. The next day, in the Altun Kupri area in the northern part of the province, conflicts broke out between supporters of Kurdish and Turkmen political parties, causing minor injuries to several people, and the relevant participants are under investigation.
(2) Explosions
In November 2025, a series of explosions and drone attacks occurred in various parts of Iraq, mainly targeting security facilities and energy infrastructure, causing casualties and triggering a livelihood crisis.
- Internal Explosion: On the night of November 24, two unexplained explosions occurred at an oil refinery along the Erbil-Kirkuk Highway. Initial assessments suggest that the explosions were caused by an internal facility fire, with no casualties reported.
- Drone Attack: On the 26th, the Khor Mor gas field, a core energy facility in the Kurdistan Region, was attacked by drones, triggering a fire and leading to a complete suspension of production. This caused a severe paralysis of Iraq’s energy supply system, resulting in a 60% to 80% drop in power generation in four provinces: Dohuk, Sulaymaniyah, Nineveh and Baghdad.
- Explosion of Leftover Ordnance: On the 4th, an explosion occurred at a Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) base in the Jarf al-Nadaf area of Baghdad, killing 1 ordnance disposal personnel and injuring 2 others.
(3) Tribal Conflicts
In November 2025, tribal and clan violent conflicts broke out in multiple parts of Iraq, including Qadisiyah, Maysan, Najaf and Basra provinces, resulting in at least 14 deaths, 13 injuries and the arrest of nearly 33 suspects.
- Qadisiyah Province: The Ministry of Interior arrested 5 suspects on suspicion of shooting and killing a family of three in downtown Diwaniyah last month.
- Najaf Province: A taxi driver was shot and killed by unknown gunmen near the airport mall in downtown Najaf, and the attackers fled the scene after committing the crime. Preliminary investigations indicate that the case may be related to tribal conflicts, and the perpetrators are still at large.
- Maysan Province: A land ownership dispute in the Ali al-Gharbi area escalated into an armed conflict, causing at least 13 casualties.
- Basra Province: An armed conflict between tribes broke out in the early morning in the northern part of the province. The situation has been brought under control after the rapid intervention of security forces. During the operation, 14 suspects were arrested and 15 involved vehicles were seized. The trigger of the conflict remains the long-standing interest disputes between the tribes.
III. Other Developments (1) Iraq Continues Operations to Crack Down on Remaining ISIS Forces
In November 2025, the Iraqi armed forces launched clearance operations against ISIS in multiple regions, eliminating several ISIS terrorists and destroying their strongholds and hideouts through air strikes and ground raids. Sources from the Iraqi military disclosed that security forces launched an air strike operation in the Zaitun Valley in southern Kirkuk Province, successfully eliminating 4 ISIS militants. According to a bulletin from the Kirkuk Regional Joint Command, it has carried out precision air strikes on five ISIS strongholds, and the relevant clearance operations are still ongoing. It is reported that the Iraqi military, in conjunction with intelligence agencies and supporting forces, simultaneously launched clearance operations in the Wadi Zgaitun area, destroying multiple hideouts of ISIS militants and successfully eliminating 4 ISIS fighters. In addition, through drone reconnaissance, Iraqi security forces detected suspicious personnel activities in orchards in the Tarmiyah area and launched a raid on the region. At present, the relevant disposal work has been carried out smoothly.
Recommendations for Chinese-funded Enterprises and Individuals in Iraq For Enterprises 1. In Key Sectors Such as Energy and Infrastructure: Enterprises should closely monitor the progress of cabinet formation, incorporate the impact of cabinet changes on project approval into risk assessments, and it is recommended to suspend the advancement of new projects in high-uncertainty regions. Meanwhile, in view of possible policy differences between major political figures such as al-Sudani and al-Maliki, enterprises should prepare a "dual-track" strategy in advance to adapt to policy orientations under different governing coalitions.
2. In Key Project Areas Such as Oilfields and Industrial Parks: It is necessary to deploy additional professional security forces and set up physical barriers and emergency evacuation routes. Establish an around-the-clock liaison mechanism with professional security agencies, and regularly organize emergency drills for riot resistance and hijacking prevention. At the same time, to prevent infiltration by extremist forces, it is imperative to strengthen personnel background checks and strictly restrict unauthorized personnel from entering core operation areas.
For Individuals 1. Keep a Close Eye on Political Dynamics and Avoid Protest Hotspots: Through the Chinese Embassy and Consulates in Iraq, the Chinese Police-Civilian Cooperation Center and local official media, real-time monitor the progress of internal negotiations and cabinet formation within the CF as well as relevant protest information. Stay away from protest gathering points such as areas surrounding the CF headquarters in Baghdad, gathering areas of al-Sudani and al-Maliki supporters, the vicinity of the parliament building, the central bank branch and concentrated areas of oilfield enterprises in Basra, and the vicinity of educational institutions in Babylon Province. Avoid lingering at election-related rallies and protest sites, and refrain from filming sensitive scenes.
2. Strengthen Daily Security Measures: Reinforce doors and windows of residences, install simple monitoring and alarm devices, and keep in mind the consular protection hotline of the embassy, Iraq’s emergency call number and first-aid phone number. Stock up on enough drinking water for half a month to cope with possible water outage crises.
