According to the monitoring reports from security officers of Hanwei International in Iraq and relevant media coverage, Hanwei International analyzes that the security situation in Iraq continues to tighten. As the nationwide parliamentary election in Iraq on November 11 approaches, competition among election candidates has intensified, and even serious political violence incidents have occurred. During the period of political turbulence, basic livelihood issues such as drinking water safety and salary security have not been resolved for a long time. Will the "Water and Bread Protests" reoccur? Tribal conflicts have broken out frequently in many places, and the proliferation of illegal weapons and the failure of local grass-roots governance "complement each other". At the same time, the multi-dimensional pressure exerted by the United States on Iraq has further stimulated the escalation of local factional armed forces, and the local partial security situation is not optimistic.

I. Political and Economic Aspects

(I) Fierce Competition in the Iraqi Prime Minister Election, Fearing a Long "Vacancy Period" for Cabinet Formation

This month, with the advancement of the Iraqi parliamentary election, the competition for the prime minister's position has entered a white-hot stage. Among them, the Shia "Coordination Framework" has split into two major camps supporting Maliki and Sudani. Iraq has never had a single political party or coalition that can independently obtain an absolute majority of 165 seats in the parliament. The one-year cabinet formation period after the 2021 election may reoccur.

(II) Centuries-old Severe Water Crisis, Economic and Livelihood Under Pressure

For more than 50 years, the water level of the Mosul Dam, Iraq's largest reservoir, has approached the dead water level for the first time. A serious agricultural irrigation crisis has occurred in the lower reaches of the river. Rice cultivation has been banned, and the planting area of winter wheat has also been significantly reduced compared with previous years. If wheat production reduction leads to rising food prices, large-scale unrest similar to the 2019 "Water and Bread Protests" is very likely to occur.

(III) Protest Activities Focus on Basic Livelihood Security

On October 13, security forces violently expelled demonstrators protesting against the water crisis in Basra Province, Iraq. Live ammunition and tear gas injured many civilians, including women and children.
On October 15, a large number of contractors gathered at the Ministry of Finance in Baghdad, demanding that the government settle the arrears of national engineering projects. Otherwise, the public service system may collapse, and both enterprises and employees will face a severe survival crisis.

II. Social Security Risks

(I) Shooting Incident Targeting the "Rule of Law State" Coalition

The "Rule of Law State" Coalition is led by Shia tycoon Maliki, and the "Honest Ones" Coalition has close ties with Shia militias. The attack on the coalition's candidate this time indicates vicious violent competition among political camps, with obvious political intentions. It may lead to some factions boycotting the election, voters giving up voting, and further intensify political fragmentation.

(II) Explosion Incidents

Baghdad: On October 14, Safa al-Mashhadani, a parliamentary candidate of the "Sovereignty Alliance" - the core Sunni political force in Iraq, was killed in a car bomb attack in Baghdad, and four other companions were injured.
Basra Province: Explosions caused by homemade improvised devices occurred near the University Hospital in the Bradiya District of central Basra and near a construction contracting company responsible for undertaking oil field electrical and instrumentation projects, resulting in certain property losses.

(III) Tribal Conflicts

This month, conflicts were mainly concentrated in tribal-inhabited provinces such as Najaf, Diyala, and Dhi Qar. The causes were all daily trivial matters such as livestock entering homes, family disputes, and schoolchildren's quarrels, but they escalated into violent conflicts, eventually resulting in 4 deaths and 10 injuries. The fact that tribes can quickly organize armed confrontations further reveals that these regions still retain a strong autonomous nature and armed traditions, with certain unstable hidden dangers.

III. Other Aspects

(I) Economic Sanctions and Political Pressure, the U.S. Continues to Intervene in Iraqi Affairs

This month, the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announced sanctions against Iraqi entities and individuals related to the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the "Kata'ib Hezbollah", the "Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq" and other groups, and called on Iraq to disarm armed forces related to Iran in its territory as soon as possible. This move has forced Iraq to "take sides" in the face of the complex situation, breaking Iraq's long-sought balanced foreign policy.

Recommendations for Key Prevention Measures for Chinese-funded Enterprises and Individuals in Iraq

Closely Monitor the Election Situation and Travel CautiouslyWith the approaching of the parliamentary election and the prime minister's election, the political competition environment in Iraq is fierce. It is recommended to pay timely attention to relevant news reported by official media and other channels, stay away from areas of political rallies and public protests, and avoid discussing political and livelihood topics in public places.
Strengthen Security Prevention and Emergency PreparednessThis month, a number of security incidents such as political shootings and tribal conflicts have broken out in Iraq. It is recommended not to go to Baghdad - the capital of Iraq, and tribal gathering areas such as Najaf, Diyala, and Dhi Qar unless necessary. When going out if necessary, routes should be planned in advance, and necessary security forces should be deployed if required. In addition, there have been several incidents of lawbreakers robbing and extorting Chinese citizens in Iraq recently. It is recommended to strengthen the security protection of residences and workplaces, such as installing anti-theft doors and windows and monitoring equipment. Enterprises should formulate detailed security emergency plans and establish good cooperation with professional security organizations to improve the ability to respond to emergencies.
Avoid the Game of External Forces and Strictly Abide by the Compliance Boundaries of ProjectsBased on the multi-faceted intervention of the U.S. in Iraq, Chinese-funded enterprises should strictly define their business scope, make project plans in advance, and strictly abide by Iraqi laws and regulations to ensure the compliance of business activities. Before carrying out business activities in Iraq, relevant enterprises are advised to carefully check whether their transaction counterparts are on the sanction lists issued by official channels such as the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) to avoid project uncertainties caused by sanctions.

In case of any problems, please contact us in time:

Iraq Emergency Call: 130
Iraq Ambulance Call: 105
Global Emergency Call for Consular Protection and Services of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (24 hours): +86-10-12308, +86-10-65612308
Consular Protection and Assistance Hotline of the Chinese Embassy in Iraq: +964-7901912315
Consular Protection and Assistance Hotline of the Chinese Consulate General in Erbil: +964-7515477820
Consular Protection and Assistance Hotline of the Chinese Consulate General in Basra: +964-7858618940

Iraq Security Situation Overview for October 2025